A surge in corporation tax receipts was the highlight of exceptionally strong June Exchequer returns.
Income tax figures remain positive, up 7.5% year to date, driven primarily by higher numbers in employment. June itself was particularly strong, up 11.5% on the same month in 2023.
June is a non month for VAT returns. However year to date VAT receipts are 6.2% ahead of 2023, driven by strong consumer spending. With interest rate decreases starting to take effect, the indicators are that VAT receipts should remain bouyant for the remainder of 2024.
Undoubtedly the stand out figure in the June tax returns was corporation tax, up 38% on June 2023. Given how strong the June 2023 returns were, this is a remarkable outturn.
The June corporation tax receipts are to a large extent driven by full year 2024 profit estimates. Thus crucially, positive June returns would suggest further positive returns to come in the key month of November, assuming that profit estimates hold up.
Predicting the future trajectory of corporation tax receipts is becoming increasingly hazardous. However it looks like 2024 will be another record year for corporation tax receipts.
Overall, an exceptional month for the Exchequer, with indications that the new Minister will have sight of a significant Budget surplus come Budget day.
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